The former U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that the United States and Pakistan had reached an agreement to develop what he described as Pakistan’s “massive” oil reserves. The claim ignited immediate debate: Is Pakistan really sitting on untapped energy gold, or was this just another one of Trump’s trademark exaggerations?
Let’s unpack the facts.
What the Numbers Actually Say
Right now, Pakistan isn’t exactly swimming in oil. In fact, it’s heavily reliant on imports to meet its energy needs. Just in the fiscal year 2025, the country spent close to $16 billion on petroleum products roughly 30% of its total imports. That’s a staggering figure for a developing economy.
On the production side, the news isn’t great either. Local oil output has dropped by nearly 12%, averaging just 62,225 barrels per day. Clearly, domestic production is nowhere near enough to support the nation’s growing energy demands.
So, Is There Oil Underground?
Interestingly, Trump’s statement isn’t entirely without basis. Back in 2015, a report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration suggested that Pakistan may have up to 9.1 billion barrels of technically recoverable shale oil and about 586 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, primarily in the Lower Indus Basin.
Moreover, recent exploration activities hint at potential discoveries. Officials in Pakistan have confirmed that promising reserves may exist offshore and in provinces like Sindh, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. While these signs are hopeful, most of these reserves remain unexplored and undeveloped for now.
The Real Challenge: Extraction
Here’s the catch – “technically recoverable” doesn’t automatically mean that oil can or will be extracted easily. Shale oil requires advanced drilling technology, substantial investment, and consistent policy backing. all of which Pakistan has struggled with historically.
Political uncertainty, lack of infrastructure, and limited private sector involvement have all slowed progress. Until large-scale exploration begins and proves commercially viable, most of these “massive reserves” will remain just numbers on paper.
So, was Trump exaggerating? Maybe a little, but not completely. Pakistan could have massive oil and gas reserves buried beneath its soil. The real question isn’t whether the oil is there, but whether the country can actually get it out.
Read more: “An Honour to Meet Him”: Trump Praises Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir Visit
